Global Elections Send Mixed Results

Your author originally wanted to pen this summary of elections, allowing the reader to dissect and digest the material, forming their own conclusion. However after some thought your author has decided to provide his analysis. Your author will tabulate the list of elections by moving from the right to the left of the aisle.

Canada: We Want Our Money Back!
American media was abuzz over Canada’s recent election. Not since Canadian voters voted down the Quebec referendum in 1995 has there been so much focus on Canadian politics.

The Canadian voter brought their wallets to the polls when they delivered a stunning defeat to the Liberal party. The party had enjoyed a 12 year reign, which experienced noticeable economic growth in the province of Alberta. This was fueled primarily for US’s demand of beef and grain imports and strong global prices for oil. The Liberals were washed with cash, having brought eight years of consecutive budget surpluses and declining inflation.

However under Liberal Party head and Canadian PM Paul Martin, Ottawa passed tax after tax. The most unpopular being the national value added tax or GST. Stephen Harper took notice that Canadians wanted a change. Harper, Ontarian by birth and adopted son of Alberta launched his political career in Calgary, jumpstarting the dormant Conservative Party (Tories).

Harper campaigned on tax cuts, reducing the GST, building up Canada’s military force; improving relations with The States (Canada’s biggest trading partner) and he gave Alberta a voice. Canada has a history of producing prime ministers primarily from the Ontarian and Quebec provinces. Harper’s victory was also assisted with recent scandals uncovered within the Liberal Party. One of them involved a kickback scheme where Quebec based advertising agencies split profits with the Liberals by contributing heavily to the party. This eventually led to the New Democratic Party (NDP) breaking away in support of the Conservatives and calling for a no-confidence vote.

However if overcoming the Liberal Party’s grip on Canadian politics was a hoop to jump through, Harper and the Tories must be prepared to climb yet another mountain. While Harper was able to win the PM’s seat his party failed to pick enough seats in Canada’s parliament and thus it may be gridlock for his tenure. Out of the 308 House seats, the Conservatives hold 124, Liberals with 103, the Bloc Québécois holding 51, the left of center NDP with 29 and 1 for an Independent. Harper also made strides in Quebec as the Tories picked up 10 seats. Given the history of the Bloc Québécois, Harper may very well have a tough time convincing his French counterparts to support his initiatives even if his party has made strides in the province.

Liberia: A Change For The Better
Since the end of the Cold War and collapse of the Soviet Empire, the one time US ally Liberia has continued to spiral out of control. Plagued by civil wars and poverty, the country hit a critical point when then President Charles Taylor sought exile in August 2003. Decades of guerilla violence and nearly the entire population living at poverty standards left the country in shambles.

Finally the country may have gotten something right. On January 16th the country elected Ellen Johnson Sirleaf as their president. Sirleaf, who as a young mother worked her way through college and graduated from Harvard, campaigned on constitutional reform. Her professional background consists of posts held at the World Bank and United Nations. She will have the foreign lenders watching her like a hawk, since there is a concern they may refuse additional funding and now the country has become reliant on such stipends. While Sirleaf appears to be daring in her bold initiatives, quite possibly the most important issue is the leadership of the African Union or coalition of African nations. Without this resolve her efforts may prove fruitless. Your author salutes the citizens of Liberia, the first African nation to elect a female leader and knows that the only way the country can move is forward, they have no other choice.

Chile: Moving Left? Not A Chance
Women made another stride in the most unlikely of continents-South America. Michelle Bachelete defied the odds and became the first woman president in Chile. Bachelete, an admitted socialist, is the daughter of a former army general. Both father and daughter openly opposed Chile’s notorious dictator Augusto Pinochet, with her father dying in prison after being a labeled an enemy of the state. Ms. Bachelete would ultimately live in exile until it was safe for her to return, later gaining a name as a well regarded pediatrician, defense and health minister.

Chile, primarily due to farming and copper mines, has experienced strong economic growth over the past several years. Despite their socialist leanings, the country has sliced poverty by 50% since the 1980s and Bachelete campaigned on continuing their strong economic reform. Wall Street didn’t miss a beat and the consensus is that Bachelete will not do an about face. Will she be able to take a developing nation through the door and allow to become fully developed? This will be by far her biggest hurdle to conquer while not rolling the country back.

Portugal: Back From The Ashes? Not Likely
With the global media either focused on the Canadian national elections or a movie about gay cowboys, your author still hasn’t found someone that has actually seen it despite the global media hype for this rather (pardon the expression) queer production. Oh how the Village People must be proud to see one of their own characters being heralded by the likes of Hollywood but your author digresses.

The election in Portugal did not appeal to the media. The country has been in a bit of a doldrums since they ceased to be an influential global power following the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami. Following an occupation during the Napoleonic War, the country leaned to the left and embraced liberalism, a cultural influence that was often forced upon their citizens. This would continue until the 1970s, with the majority of large-scale industries being nationalized and leaving a country heavily in debt. The 1980s weren’t much better for them as the government began attempts to privatize them.

It wasn’t the legacy of liberalism that stymied their prosperity, although it certainly didn’t provide a positive contribution that brought about a dying economy. It was the country’s macro-economy. As part of the European Union the country was protected from global competition and was able to sell their goods to readily available buyers (fellow EU members). Prime Minister and member of the Social Democrat Anibal Cavaco Silva would lead the country from 1985-95. This worked well until the Chinese and other countries with cheaper labor costs began to eat away at Portugal. The country remained heavily dependent on their EU trading partners and watched as industries shut down. The political climate then made a hard, emphasis on hard, turn to the left by electing Socialist Party (PS) candidate Jose Socrates. Things went from bad to worse when GDP growth failed to break past 1%.

On January 23 the Portuguese voted Silva back in. It was actually a bit of a mix of left and hard left candidates. The Socialists, Communists and Left Bloc coalition were all represented and totaled five candidates. Cavaco received just over 50% of the votes. However if serious infrastructure changes aren’t implemented in their economy, forcing the citizens to take pain, then Portugal shows no sign of a prosperous future no matter who takes office.


Bolivia: A Catch 22?
Traditionally Bolivia has been a quagmire of economic and political mismanagement. Beginning in 2000 the country started to have a chance when their rich natural gas supplies were in high demand. However what occurred, as it often does with countries heavily reliant upon their own natural resources for trade, was a noticeable wedge between the poor and rich, with no middle-class. Your author is now more convinced than ever that a clear middle-class must be developed if a country expects to sustain prosperity for generations to come.

With this class difference apparent, Evo Morales campaigned for the presidency and won. Morales is unique because he is considered a native (sometimes referred to as an ‘Indian’ or one who is not from Spanish extraction) and is a first to hold the leader’s seat. Morales will soon begin to implement a strategy to prosecute drug traffickers and not coca leaf farmers. This was a campaign promise he made to the farmers’ coalition and is also an attempt to appease nations actively battling drug trafficking.

Your author believes that Bolivia will not break their shackles and probably lean heavier into a socialist abyss with Morales in power. He has campaign promises to fulfill. His support came from peasant and mine workers, most of them involved with Bolivia’s Central Obrara Boliviana (COB). The COB, Bolivia’s strongest labor union, has literally been the driving force in Bolivian politics since the 1950s and one can reasonably conclude is responsible for the country’s chaotic legacy. In fact within 24 hours of becoming the country’s president the COB issued a statement that would allow Morales three months to nationalize the gas and energy sector or else face demonstrations on the streets. Morales could very well be in a sticky situation, facing massive strikes and potential civil unrest if he allows capitalism to blossom or shut off trading partners if he grants the COB’s concessions. In the past Morales relationship with the COB has been uneasy at best. However what should be on the mind of all the readers is that both Venezuela’s Hugo Chaves and Fidel Castro have embraced Morales’ win.

Palestine: Legitimizing Radicalism
By now the world is well aware of the Hamas political party gaining significant portion of seats in Palestine’s government. While their opposition, the Fatah party, was justifiably labeled corrupt and ensure the party’s victory.

The Hamas have made no illusions of their supporting of Muslim terrorist groups or the recent election of Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Additionally Hammas’ highest ranking member and Palestine’s President Mahmoud Abbas allowed a violent radical arm into the party. The Hammas is committed to completely wiping Israel off the map.

Previously Fatah leader Yasser Arafat enjoyed global celebrity status, compliments of western liberals, as leader of the Fatah and their armed guard, the PLO. It is strange how liberal elitist types will stand behind a rebellious tyrant such as they did originally with Castro and Che Guevara. In fact even today Che is seen as sort of a cultish hero within many college campuses.

How will this group of liberal minds now view Hamas especially given the obvious embarrassment when it was revealed that Arafat had siphoned millions out of the pockets of his party in favor of his own bank account? Will they stand behind the party as they are more than likely begin to engage in war with Israel? Palestine’s attempts may very well be at the end of their proverbial rope.

If and when Israel forgoes the peace process, which has all but effectively ended with this recent election and favors a military interaction, this bloody conflict will finally be put to rest. Palestine has already been given back significant portions of the Gazza Strip and West Bank. They won’t be satisfied until they are able to claim all of Israel. With their two primary allies consisting of Syria and Iran, their attempts will falter unless left leaning, ignorant and misguided sympathizers decide to put global pressure on Israel and once again legitimize chaos. In light of the seriousness of Muslim extremists, now encroaching on many of these same Western nations, will these countries be quick to support President Mahmoud Abbas knowing they are in essence in the same bed with Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? The world needs a Churchill now more than ever.


Well there you have it, the world as your author sees it and in many cases I do hope to be proven wrong on my scenario analysis. Thank you for reading.

InfiniteSpeculator.com

Shining Moments: Dems, UN and World Peace

Dems: Truly Losing Touch

By now the confirmation hearing and grilling of Justice Samuel Alito by the judicial committee has been reported at ad nauseum. Judge Alito is just as qualified as Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, who he will be replacing and yet he must jump through hoops being held by the likes of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY).

By the sound of the opposition, the Democrat Party, one would think that only one issue is pertinent and that being abortion. With a fear that Judge Alito, if confirmed, will single-handly overturn Roe v. Wade; the Democrats led by the morally irreprehensible Ted Kennedy made the charge. Alito played it smooth and gave them nothing. Now do US citizens have reason to fear that the ruling will be overturned? Well from a scenario analysis it is quite possible given the predictable opinion of the high court. However it isn't so much an issue that abortion will be banned but rather abortion will return to the decision of the state. The Democrat party does have a genuine fear because if this occurs, federal rule from Washington DC will no longer be a factor and thus the party that preaches such (in this case the Dems) will lose yet another strangling grip on the US citizen.

Alito certainly conveys he favors state and local law over that held by the federal system. In fact to point the tide of change that just took place. On this date the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Oregon's 'Death With Dignity' law, which had been previously challenged by retired US Attorney General John Ashcroft and current US Attorney Alberto Gonzales. The Oregon law, which made doctor prescribed euthanasia legal, barely passed with Oregon voters. The Bush administration attempted to enact federal legislation making euthanasia a federal offense. This is the first step in what will prove to be the foundation stone in throwing off the shackles of federal rule over daily lives.

While your author values life and despises a culture that does not value such, he has to admit this overturn will prove to be beneficial for the country. Now states will be able to enact legislation, which will have profound and quite possibly desirable consequences on a broad range of issues. The author forsees imminent domain being challenged, a recent Supreme Court ruling that legalized the forced sell of properties on the chance a community may benefit economically and yes abortion as well. Strange how the Dems forgot the domain issue when it came to Alito.

Allow me to close by reminding the reader that the US Civil War was fueled by states' rights. Despite popular thinking and Alex Haley's novel Roots, the War began with South Carolina's succession from the Union after the northeast held an advantage in the Congress, not because of slavery. Soon other states followed and America entered its bleakest period. Let us not forget nor trivialize the importance of state governance.
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Hillary Clinton, along with ill-famed New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin, have proved once again some can say 'racially fueled' remarks while others cannot. Senator Clinton compared the current the US Congress with that of a 'plantation', a reference obviously alluding to Civil War era slavery on southern farms and with no criticism from the mainstream media. Clinton rarely shoots from the hip, every move and word uttered from her is calculated. While the rumor mill has all but confirmed her presidential nomination campaign in 2008, Clinton must be attempting to allign herself with 'disenfranchised' (an adjective despised by your author) black voters. Why else would she say such lunacy? Maybe Al Sharpton holds the answer. Maybe the universal appeal held by Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice looms in the background. These sound bites and 'strong words' may have worked ten years ago, but no longer and Clinton obviously isn't aware of this fact.

Ray Negin on the other hand proved once again he must be the most inept mayor in the history of The Big Easy, which is a tall task to accomplish given the historical relevancy of corruption that has plagued the city and Democratic machine that stood by through it all. Negin promised his voters and the press that New Orleans would once again be a 'chocolate city'. Negin should be focused on the 1,000+ New Orleans residents that are unaccounted for, missing and possibly dead. Negin faces heavy opposition if he decides to run for the position again and something tells your author his 15 mins of fame are up.

Concluding these two summaries your author is reminded of two public figures who faced a huge backlash in the media for their speech. The first is one time Congressional leader and Republican Mississippi Senator Trent Lott. At a birthday celebration for elder Republican Senator Strom Thurman of South Carolina, Lott proclaimed (paraphrasing) "the country would have been better off" if Thurman had won the US presidency. Thurman unsuccessfully ran against then US President Franklin Roosevelt. Thurman was an on the record segregationist. This was all the mainstream media could focus on and publicly harrassed Lott until he resigned from his Majority Leader post. However what the media failed to mention was the fact that Thurman was against a growing federal government. The greater role of government in culture and commerce were hallmarks of the Roosevelt administration. Maybe Thurman knew something after all?

The second event, more recently, involved New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. While the transit workers went on strike, demanding absurb increases in wages and benefits, Bloomberg would not buckle to their pressure. Bloomberg was ridiculed in the media when he described the union leaders as 'thugs'.

These events only confirm your author's thoughts, the same shared by a growing number of others, that mainstream media in America is extremely biased. How is that Senator Clinton can suggest that the US Congress is on par with a white owned farm fueled by slave labor and Mayor Negin can describe his city as being 'chocolate this without criticism from the mainstream media? If one ever needed a cup of java or a shot in the arm to wake to the realities, this is certainly one.
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Both the Boston Herald and The National Enquirer are reporting that Massachusetts Senator Edward "Ted" Kennedy has a 21 year old illegitimate son. Apparently the young man was spurned from a brief affair with Cape Cod resident Caroline Bilodeau back in 1983 and the Senator became upset when it was discovered she was pregnant. Possibly the only positive aspect is that the child's mother later married. Her husband adopted and raised the young man as his own. Note being a man and possessing moral fabric is something foreign to the Kennedys that share this same gender.

Now your author cannot place much creditibility in The Enquirer nor The Herald, but in light of potential lawsuits, it is almost certain the claims are true. However, speaking to the history of Kennedy's moral turpitudes, it is a fact. Lest we forget Mary Jo Kopechne and Chappaquiddick? Nor should we forget Kennedy nephew William K. Smith and the 1991 rape charges that were alleged to have occured at the oceanfront Kennedy home in Palm Beach while the good Senator himself was on the premise?

Speaking of Kennedy and beachfront homes, in light of the most recent scandals; the author is reminded of a Kennedy supporter who debated him on Kennedy family societal contributions. This supporter stated that Senator Kennedy 'did quite a bit for poor people'. Your author quickly reminded this person that the Boston communities of Dorcester and Southie were still ghettos. In essence poverty stricken eras or ghettos were in Senator's own backyard. Your author then shared the following prescription for assisting the ills of poverty: One must have been poor and elevated themselves out of that environment to understand a cure for such ill conditions. Kennedys, beachfront homes and Cape Cod summers don't qualify for expertise in curing this social condition. No wonder he and his political party affiliation continue to lose ground.

For some humor check out the following link.
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The UN stepping up to the global plate? Don't bet on it

The UN will now be able to show the supporters of Tony Blair, George W. Bush, Australia's PM John Martin and several others allied in Iraq how they too can be taken seriously. No it isn't curing global poverty or their questionable managing of tsunami relief funds but rather Iran. After wishing Israel's PM Ariel Sharon a 1,000 deaths following his massive stroke, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad promised to continue to develop the country's uranium enrichment capabilities and then capped off the matter by strutting into Syria, supporting the country's President Bashar al-Assad. It should be noted that al-Assad supports Syria's history of occupying Lebanon and spreading mass chaos in Middle East.

While the obvious is there, the potential of nuclear weapons in the hands of a violatile character, your author asks "where are the Michael Moore-ites and Bush critics?". This crowd was the same gang that claimed Bush "delegitimized" the United Nations. Well here is a chance, despite the UN oil for food scandal and the already questionable management of tsunami relief funds, that they can be collectively taken seriously and are due the respect they deserve. Let us forget the fact that nearly every nation is a member, thus making any universal agreement nearly impossible and that Cuba sits on their human rights board. Let us forget that they stood powerless during the Kosovo crisis. What can the UN do to assure the world they are credible?

Thus far the only thing they have proven is their ability to call meetings and threats of sanctions. Where is UN leader Kofi Annan? Your author hears a small voice suggesting that these same allied forces, possibly others will come to the plate as well, will be called upon or take a pro-active iniative. This will only prove that the UN has 'delegitimized' themselves by their actions or inactions. One day, it is your author's hope, that the world will realize world peace or such a concept can only be achieved through stern resolve, realistic goals, expected actions of world leaders and not achieved by holding hands nor signing agreements. Hitler signed plenty of agreements, laughing all the way and nearly conquering all of Europe in the process. The conventional thinking bought into Hitler's stunts and will buy into what the concept of the present day ineffective UN.

Thwarting Iran's efforts will be easier than what a brief glance suggests. They are a country made up of a two fold population. The first portion being an elder poor group who have watched their country slip into chaos following decades of radical extremism. The second half is comprised of youth, who nearly got it together in the 1990s and are demanding the overly influencial Muslim church be removed from politics. The true test will be convincing Russia, desperate for any international trade and China, desperate for oil, to forego their interests. This is the true crux at assuring the brief legacy of President Ahmadinjad. By the growing success of democracy and free markets in Iraq and the like-minded allies that border the country, Iran may very well stand, both geographically and ideologically, alone.

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Further Pondering: The Concept of World Peace

Palestine's President Mahmoud Abbas has announced he will resign from his post if he believes his programs will not be carried out. Abbas, a ranking member of the Hammas party, received global criticism when he supported a radical terrorist wing to gain entrance into his party. Although Hammas is popular, they are expected to pick up many votes following an upcoming election, Abbas threats of resignation should make one think.

Hammas has denounced the Oslo agreement of 1993, which effectively detailed the borders and favors a total annilation of Israel. Hammas' opposition party, Fatah, has gained the justified reputation as being corrupt following the long reign of Arafat, which was resulted in a split in the party. It should be noted that Fatah was able to garner a portion of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, an initiative supported by Israel PM Sharon following his break from the political party Likud and forming the Kadima party.

Now you have radicalism and sponsored terrorism on the rise with the Hammas nearly a shoe-in to win a significant portion of the Palestinian political scene. Israel with an uncertain political future and their leader incapacitated. Palestine having already been given back the West Bank and Gaza Strip, both of them in economic shambles. While the future appears that until all of Israel is destroyed and managed by a regime sympathetic to terrorism. This only proving when you give an inch to violent radicalism, you might as well give a foot or more. Once again holding hands and signing treaties rarely materializes in genuine peace.

Infinite Speculator
infinitespeculator.com

2005

So long to 2005 and ring in 2006.

Let's recap a few memorable moments in 2005, shall we?

April 2005-Sadly enough the US Supreme Court ruled in favor of 'imminent domain' whereby private property can be bought for the idea of economic expansion. Of course the property owners get a 'fair' market value for the property. I have to wonder if the high court decided exactly how this price tag will be established. As stated in a prior post, this ruling favored local politicians and guaranteeing votes in their districts. Now with the court looking more to the right, it will be interesting to see how this finally pans out. As said before it was a sad day for capitalism and property rights.

May 2005-France did not fail to disappoint when they led the charge to counter the EU referendum. In record numbers, voters came out and voted down the proposed legislation. Other countries soon followed. This only upholds the theory that the idea of the EU is doomed. If so what will be the results for the Euro currency?

Later we saw the state of French society as Muslim youth took the streets of Paris, setting the city of lights on fire and only further proving that France is a potential time bomb for civil upheaval.

The economies of China and India continued to prosper as well as command the prices for energy and construction materials. Home Depot will do a booming business in Hong Kong. Economies from the Nordic countries, Japan and Canada posted strong growth. Their equities, in response to the slipping value of the US dollar, performed quite nicely. For the record your author is invested in the latter three countries.

US Stocks flopped, unless you were invested in international funds, while commodities roared. On the international front look for quite possibly the Philippines and Vietnam to post gains.

July 2005-Muslim Terrorists bombed the London subway system, killing 52. Your author has stated before that this may have been last card played by the Muslims as it did not result in the immediate withdrawal of British troops in Iraq. It is the author's hope that with UK PM Tony Blair at the helm of the EU, that maybe the entire continent will come to the call of battling terrorists. Whether this ever materializes remains yet to be seen, but by all indication freedom is winning and Bin Laden is hiding.

Hurricane Katrina wrecked New Orleans and the entire Gulf Coast, proving that mother nature can't be stopped. Having personally experienced three hurricans in 2004, there was glaring negligence on the local government of New Orleans and state of Louisiana by their failure to take precautionary actions. Relief workers and engineer corps got fired upon by local thugs, the city itself went into total chaos and finally all parties just played a game of finger pointing. Bush implemented a billion dollar rebuilding policy with accountability, which is a new concept to the city given its notorious history of corruption. The thugs have since been relocated and property values are skyrocketing, thus providing hope they won't be able to return. Just remember one thing New Orleans' residents, you have historically voted Democrat and you shall reap what you sow.


The New York Times proved once again, make that twice, that they are out to destabilize the Bush administration. The Scooter Libby CIA fiasco will fizzle and your author predicts Libby will be acquitted. Then the Times decided to hold off on a story that the Bush administration has illegally been spying on US citizens for the purposes of terrorism investigation. This authority actually originated in the Carter administration. Your author finds it opportunistic of The Times that they decided to hold off on the story until days before Congress was to renew the Patriot Act. Allow The Times to keep pushing because it has come back to damage them. The internal picture is not kind either, their stock is down nearly 50% and they have faced layoffs. Who is reading this paper with regularity is beyond me. Other US papers have taken their prominence and they are losing viewers in their own regional areas to The Post. Check out the articles section at http://www.infinitespeculator.com

Housing prices continued to escalate in value for the year but appear to have cooled down. The implications of rising interest rates should be on the mind of ones holding interest only loans. Now there will be crunch time. This bull market wasn't born overnight and neither will the downturn experienced acceleration. It may be a good time to start looking at buying real estate. That is the contrarian in me coming out (when others sell, you wait and see if you should be buying).

Finally the citizens of Iraq came out in droves, disproving the likes of The Times and Michael Moore, when they voted for change. Now with democracy obviously appealing to them, a change can begin and the terrorists will have one less place to call home. Watch the critics make fools of themselves when trying to debate this event.

I will post on the economy and outlook for 2006 this week. Thanks for viewing.

infinitespeculator.com